Your eyes have probably told you enough about the Vancouver Canucks’ defensive struggles so far this season.
Through 13 games, the Canucks have mostly struggled to contain the opposition, unless they’re the hapless Ottawa Senators or the Winnipeg Jets.
And the success against the Jets, of course, is just a one-game sample so far. (It still was the most impressive defensive performance of the season, a taste of what the Canucks believe they should be doing every night.)
By the numbers, it’s bad as well. According to Natural Stat Trick, which collects data from the NHL’s official feeds, no team in the NHL gives up more shots than the Canucks at even strength, no matter how you slice it: be it shots on goal, shot attempts, unblocked shot attempts, scoring chances, the Canucks are bringing up the rear.
Now, in recent sessions with the media, the Canucks have pushed back against some of the metrics that have been cited, arguing that shot quality matters a lot more than shot quantity, which is true to an extent.
But the sheer volume of shots is still adding up to a mountain of trouble, as highlighted by some newly released data by Stephen Valiquette, the former NHL goalie who runs the data-tracking company Clear Sight Analytics.
According to CSA’s tracking, the Canucks are 30th in the NHL in expected goals against overall, and dead last in expected goals against when it’s just about defending against attacks off the rush.
One area in which the Canucks aren’t the league-worst, according to CSA, is when you look at high-danger shots, which are calculated off a variety of factors — including things like type of shot, how the shot was created, the goalie’s position and movement. Te Canucks are in the middle third of the league, sitting 18th in high-danger save percentage, and 19th in high-danger save percentage off the rush.
You may recall that last season, CSA rated Jacob Märkström as one of the NHL’s best-performing netminders . He made more tough saves than anyone in the NHL and it translated into the league’s second best goals-saved-above-expected total. (Winnipeg’s Connor Hellebuyck made a late surge to just pip Märkström .)
(Notably, CSA’s definition of high-danger differs from what is offered publicly by Natural Stat Trick: NST’s metric is limited to shot location and doesn’t include broader context because of the data the NHL provides. The Canucks are giving up the fourth-most high-danger chances in the league by NST’s definition.)
According to HockeyViz’s shot-mapping, the Canucks are bleeding shots against all over the ice. They’re allowing far too many shots from the point and far too many from the slot.
They’re just not giving their goaltenders much chance at all.
At the other end of the ice, CSA’s data shows the Canucks’ offence is operating at a middling pace, except for their success in high-danger chances. In both general terms and off the rush, they have the best shooting percentage in the league on those opportunities.
Natural Stat Trick’s metrics paint a similar offensive picture. The Canucks are in the top third of the NHL when it comes to generating shot attempts and scoring chances, though their unblocked shot attempts rate is in the bottom half of the league.
At the end of the day, the conclusion is pretty obvious. The Canucks need to play better in their own end, and they need to get better fast if they’re going to mount a charge to the playoffs.
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