After Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders’ convincing win in the Nevada caucuses, there is no disputing that Sanders is the current front-runner to be the Democratic Party’s presidential candidate. And if he continues to build on his early political momentum (along with his delegate lead), he could lock up the nomination long before the mid-July National Convention in Milwaukee.
Let’s set to one side the thorny issues of age, heart history and the fact that Sanders is not a longstanding Democrat; it is patently obvious that he is on a major roll. The seminal question, though, is whether he can roll to a resounding presidential victory in November.
It’s a pretty good bet that U.S. President Donald Trump would rather face Sanders than either Joe Biden or Mike Bloomberg in the forthcoming general election. He doesn’t see Bernie as a real threat to his re-election chances.
It wasn’t long after the TV networks declared Sanders the winner that Trump tweeted: “Looks like Crazy Bernie is doing well in the Great State of Nevada. … Congratulations Bernie, & don’t let them take it away from you.”
I’m trying hard not to think about the Twitter storm that will follow in the wake of a Sanders’ coronation.
Still, can you imagine how relentless the Trump broadsides will be should Sanders prevail? Can you picture the targe-rich environment for the shoot-from-the hip president?
The heated rhetoric about “socialism,” “radical movement” and, oh yes, “revolution” would be incessant. And Trump would undoubtedly have a field day at his campaign rallies about what a Sanders’ victory would mean for the U.S. economy. “Crazy Bernienomics” indeed.
That’s important because the key battleground state of Florida (with 29 Electoral College votes) will be crucial to have in the Democratic Party win column (after Hillary Clinton lost it to Trump in 2016). But with all the disparaging words about socialism and revolution (read Cuba and Venezuela), it will be next to impossible for Sanders to garner the critical votes of Latinos in Florida. And the Democrats, if they hope to prevail in 2020, can ill afford to give Trump a pass in Florida.
On the stump itself, Trump would go on and on about the dangers of free university tuition, higher taxes for average Americans and corporate America and unbridled immigration liberalization. Of course, viciously attacking Sanders’ “Medicare for All” would be an endless Trump chant heard at every campaign stop along the way.
The Trump scare, smear and fear strategy would be front and centre in the fall for sure. More important, it would be underscored by a war chest of hundreds of millions of dollars, a scathing social media campaign (not to mention Russian interference) and an unrestrained and polarizing U.S. president in full flight.
By the way, there’s a reason why the Kremlin wants Bernie to win the Democratic nomination. That’s all part of its Trump re-election strategy. Indeed, the Russians fervently believe that Trump will best Sanders while barely breaking a sweat.
It’s also worth pointing out that when the story about Vladimir Putin helping to ensure that Bernie wins the nomination first broke, I think that some Democratic voters were uncomfortable with Sanders’ initial response. He essentially blamed the Washington Post for running the piece before the Nevada caucuses and seemed to imply that this was all part of a larger corporate or Democratic Party establishment effort to undermine his candidacy. But that is no way to court potential voters outside of his core base of energetic supporters.
Yes, I admit Sanders is clearly the favourite of younger Americans. He has obviously struck a resonant chord with them.
But can he win in November by speaking only to his base — and turning off moderate Democrats and independent voters? Remember, too, that the voter participation rates of American youth are often dismal.
Furthermore, it’s unclear whether more centrist Democrats in places like Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin — all states that the Democratic Party must win — will vote for the democratic socialist Sanders. They may well decide to back him out of a powerful desire to remove Trump from the White House. But it’s a risky strategy for the Dems.
Unless and until the more moderate Democratic Party presidential candidates coalesce around a single nominee, Sanders looks unstoppable. It is possible that a Biden or Bloomberg could still rise above the fray — or that we could see a brokered (and highly divisive) party convention in July. But the clock is ticking, and all the while, Sanders is racking up one electoral victory after another.
If Sanders does become the Democratic nominee, then you can be sure that the Trump team will not be able to contain themselves. Unfortunately, the thought of another four years of Trump will leave many people outside of the United States beside themselves.
Peter McKenna is professor of political science at the University of Prince Edward Island in Charlottetown.
