CHARLOTTETOWN, P.E.I. — Projections released Tuesday by Chief Health Officer Heather Morrison suggest that even with current public health measures, P.E.I. could see 9 fatalities and 120 hospitalizations by June 1 as a result of the coronavirus (COVID-19 strain) pandemic.
Morrison released details of the projections during a media briefing on Monday. The projections are based on a scenario in which the current public health measures remain in place, including continued physical distancing, a high degree of contact tracing of known cases and a high degree of isolation of out-of-province travellers.
But the projections also suggested a more dire scenario, involving an immediate easing of physical distancing measures in place, limited contact tracing of known positive cases, and limited isolation of travellers. Under this scenario, the modelling suggested as many as 900 fatalities on P.E.I., as well as 14,000 total hospitalizations by June 1.
The modelling also suggests that with relaxed public health measures, the number of critical care beds occupied in the province would climb to 840 by June 1, well over the capacity of the Island’s healthcare system. Under current public health measures, the modelling projected four individuals would need to occupy critical care beds.
Morrison said colleagues have found the different projections to be “reassuring.”
“When I asked others what they thought of this model initially, I heard different responses,” Morrison said.
“This is motivating and reassuring. Motivating that we have been doing the right measures and motivating that we need to continue to do so. It’s also reassuring that our actions have made a difference.”
Morrison said the projections also indicated that the actions taken by Islanders and public health officials will make a difference. The modelling projections were prepared to assist public health officials in actions going forward; detailed modelling has not played a large role in guiding public health decisions to date.
Only P.E.I. and the three territories – Yukon, Northwest Territories and Nunavut – have thusfar been spared deaths due to the coronavirus. P.E.I. has also had no hospitalizations and no known cases of community transmission related to the virus. There have been 25 confirmed cases to date, 23 of which are considered recovered.
Morrison said the projections indicated the actions of Islanders in the coming weeks will be critical.
“P.E.I. has fared better than many other provinces and territories and that’s many thanks to people who are listening, and those who aren’t, in terms of your behaviours and your adherence to the public health measures,” Morrison said.
Premier Dennis King, who also attended the media briefing, said he has been discussing the possibility of a “smart ease-back” of some public health measures with Morrison. He said a timeline has not yet been determined for this.
King said he has been pleased so far with the success in controlling the spread of COVID-19 in P.E.I. thusfar but said many measures would likely need to remain in place going forward.
"We're winning but it's only the end of the first period," King said.
Public health modelling of COVID-19 has garnered headlines in recent weeks, but the predicted outcomes have varying degrees of accuracy. Modelling of COVID-19 fatalities amongst different Canadian provinces currently differs from those of the federal government, despite similar methodologies.
“They are not crystal balls and it’s not what will happen but what could happen,” Morrison said on Tuesday.
