With Scott Brison’s announcement that he is not seeking re-election in 2019, the race in the Nova Scotia riding of Kings-Hants, where he has served as MP for 22 years, will likely get a lot more interesting.
The 51-year-old, longtime MP announced his plans to constituents in an open letter posted Thursday morning on his social media channels. He has also stepped down as president of the Treasury Board and as minister of digital government. Brison told said that he wants to focus more energy on his husband and four-year-old twin daughters, as well as to pursue new opportunities outside of politics.
This means there will be no incumbent on the ballot in Kings-Hants, perhaps opening the door for a change in voting trends.
“I think the race is probably a lot more wide open than it would have been,” Acadia politics professor Andrew Biro said. “It’s been a pretty secure Liberal seat for the last little while and I think that was at least to some extent because of Scott’s personal popularity.”
Evidence of that can be found not only in Brison’s long tenure, Biro said, but also that he remained popular as a Liberal MP after crossing the floor from the Progressive Conservatives in 2003. Before then, the riding had long voted Progressive Conservative.
The Liberals, of course, have yet to select a candidate — though the Liberal riding association said they’re hoping to meet soon — but Biro said there will likely be no shortage of interest from potential candidates.
“I think there are a lot of people provincially or municipally, or who haven’t necessarily even been in politics that have been sort of eyeing that (seat) who now might start to come out of the woodwork,” he said.
There’s also the possibility that the Liberals could parachute in a star candidate in hopes of ensuring a victory, but Biro said that’s somewhat risky in rural Nova Scotia.
“There is the potential for backlash against having someone from outside, but that depends on the individual.”
Burnell Lyon, the chairman of the Kings-Hants Liberal riding association, said while it’s unfortunate to lose Brison on the ballot, he’s confident the party will put forward a great candidate.
“Mr. Brison has served our constituency really well and we wish them all the best and we know he’ll still be around to help us if we need it,” he said.
The NDP also has yet to nominate a candidate and the party’s riding association president said there will be a nomination meeting soon.
“We are in the process of organizing a nomination meeting and we will definitely have a high-quality candidate to run,” said Hugh Curry.
“We’re hoping to do that soon, we have to make sure the vetting process is absolutely complete through our national office before we could ever put a name out.”
Curry would know the importance of candidate vetting — he ended up having to carry the torch for the NDP in the 2015 election after the original candidate, Morgan Wheeldon, resigned following backlash over old comments he had made on social media about Israel.
Curry admitted that having Brison off the ballot is cause for some optimism heading into the election.
“It’s certainly fair to say that with the absence of such a popular incumbent that the chances for any party to elect a member are increased,” he said.
While the Liberals enjoyed a landslide victory in Kings-Hants in 2015, with Brison garnering a whopping 70 per cent of the vote, the race was much closer as recently as 2011 when only 1,000 votes separated him and second-place Tory candidate David Morse. Prior to Brison crossing the floor, Kings-Hants had been a Progressive Conservative riding for decades.
“I would say that Kings-Hants is in some ways a fairly conservative riding, not necessarily big C conservative,” Biro said. “Whether that will result in an appetite for this sort of Andrew Scheer-style conservatism, I’m less sure.”
Kings-Hants Conservative candidate Martha MacQuarrie, who was nominated, uncontested, in June, said she’s a “mix of everything Conservative.” She works as the constituency assistant for provincial Progressive Conservative MLA John Lohr.
“I don’t know if the red Tories would call me a red Tory and the right Conservatives might not call me a right Conservative,” she said.
MacQuarrie said she was prepared for a tough race against Brison, but she said having him off the ballot doesn’t change how she’s approaching her campaign.
“I was prepared to do the work,” she said. “I have to stay focused and just keep going, hitting the doorsteps, meeting the people of Kings-Hants, and putting the word out about what a Conservative government can do for Canadians.”
RELATED:
