Stephen McNeil’s government has surged in popularity since the onset of COVID-19 pandemic with a record-breaking satisfaction level of 77 per cent.
According to the results of a new Narrative Research poll conducted in May, satisfaction with the overall performance of the Liberal government led by McNeil has jumped up from 48 per cent in February to 77 per cent — the highest satisfaction level of any government in the more than 20 years Narrative has been polling.
The highest prior to this quarter was recorded in 2005 when satisfaction with John Hamm’s government reached 69 per cent.
Speaking with SaltWire, Narrative CEO and partner Margaret Brigley said what this tells us is that in a time of crisis the governing party is in a good position — providing they manage that crisis well.
“Clearly during a time like this they have the opportunity to be in front of the public daily, we've seen the daily briefings they have the time and the ability to really demonstrate true leadership. Oftentimes a government doesn't have the opportunity to do that on a day-to-day basis,” she said.
“No matter what political stripe it is, if they do a good job it helps them out.”
The factors that put the governing party in a good position during a crisis also give a disadvantage to the opposition, Brigley said, because regardless of what party is in power, the opposition does not have the opportunity to be in the forefront like a governing party.
For decided support, the Liberals’ popularity among voters has risen to 57 per cent since February, their highest level since the 2017 election.
Support for the Progressive Conservatives sits at 22 per cent among decided voters, compared with 27 per cent in February, while NDP support has declined slightly to 15 per cent compared with 21 per cent in February. The Green Party holds the support of six per cent of decided voters, down from 10 per cent last quarter. Twenty-seven per cent of respondents indicated they did not know who they would vote for if an election were imminent, three per cent do not plan to vote, and six per cent did not state a preference.
“What is really interesting is in tracking voting intention we look at this 50 per cent figure as a pretty important marker — we have rarely seen a government re-elected if their satisfaction figures are below that 50 per cent,” Brigley said.
“Stephen McNeil's satisfaction levels have been under 50 per cent for quite some time and what this has done is elevated his satisfaction level to a whole different place. It certainly suggests that he's at a much safer spot from a voting potential than he would have been prior to this.”
Finally, for leader preference, McNeil is voters’ top choice for premier with 44 per cent support compared to 31 per cent in February. Progressive Conservative leader Tim Houston follows distantly with 15 per cent support, down only slightly from 17 in February and NDP Leader Gary Burrill is also down slightly at 13 per cent, compared with 15. Six per cent of respondents said they prefer the Green’s Thomas Trappenberg as premier, compared with nine per cent in February. Eighteen per cent of voters are undecided on the matter of leadership, while three per cent prefer none of the leaders.
METHODOLOGY
These results are part of Narrative Research’s Atlantic Quarterly®, an independent, quarterly telephone survey of Atlantic Canadians, and are based on a sample of 804 adult Nova Scotians, conducted from April 30 – May 17, 2020, with overall results accurate to within ± 3.5 percentage points, 95 out of 100 times.
