OTTAWA — With some provinces well ahead of others in flattening the curve of the COVID-19 pandemic, federal officials are urging national coordination when it comes to easing physical-distancing restrictions and reopening the economy.
Although no provinces have said they plan to imminently jump ahead in lifting restrictions, there is growing talk in some places — particularly in Western Canada and Atlantic Canada — that cautious steps can be taken soon. New cases have slowed to a trickle in almost all provinces with smaller populations, and B.C. released new modelling on Friday that showed they have largely succeeded in flattening the curve and could start to lift some restrictions in May.
Ontario and Quebec, meanwhile, are still seeing large daily increases in COVID-19 cases and deaths — although even Quebec Premier François Legault has mused recently about reopening schools and daycares.
Most of the physical-distancing restrictions that have crippled Canada’s economy fall under provincial jurisdiction, such as school closures and workplace restrictions. The federal government has some direct responsibilities, most notably the U.S.-Canada border, but it is otherwise limited to providing guidance and recommendations.
Even so, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, Deputy Prime Minister Chrystia Freeland and Chief Public Health Officer Theresa Tam all emphasized on Friday that provinces must keep the big picture in mind and coordinate their actions. Trudeau said this was the big topic of conversation on the call he had Thursday night with premiers.
“We talked last night about how important it is to be coordinated and agreed on the principles and the approaches that we take, while at the same time recognizing that the situation in P.E.I. is very different from the situation in Ontario, very different from the situation in B.C.,” he said on Friday morning.
“There will be regional approaches, as there have been all along to the next steps, but we all agreed that we need to continue to remain very, very vigilant as we carefully look at reopening the economy, about relaunching certain sectors in the future.”
We all agreed that we need to continue to remain very, very vigilant
Freeland and Tam, speaking at a subsequent news conference, gave a sterner message about reopening.
“Every single Canadian has made a huge sacrifice already in fighting the coronavirus,” Freeland said. “That sacrifice is starting to pay off…What is so essential for us all is not to squander that achievement. We have all paid too high a price already to throw it away. So what I can say on behalf of the federal government is we believe really strongly that we need to be really, really careful, really deliberate, and really thoughtful about next steps.”
Tam said there’s “a different character and intensity of spread depending on where you are in the country,” but said lifting the restrictions now runs the risk of “slipping backwards.”
“Some areas will experience the epidemic slowdown earlier than others, but no matter where we are in the country, we’ve got to remember that Canadians are highly susceptible to the virus,” she said. “Unless we all remain diligent in maintaining our new habits of physical distancing and good hygiene, new outbreaks can be sparked anywhere at any time.”
Provinces where the flow of new daily cases has slowed to less than five are Prince Edward Island, Newfoundland, New Brunswick, Saskatchewan and Manitoba. They all also have very few or even zero hospitalized cases, which is a more reliable metric than case counts. (Nova Scotia is an exception, still reporting dozens of new cases a day.)
New Brunswick Premier Blaine Higgs said this week that his province could start to reopen in May, depending on how the next two weeks go. “It also depends on our ability in the process to follow guidelines that are currently in place so that we don’t see any resurgence,” he said. New Brunswick reported zero new cases on both Thursday and Friday.
Manitoba has now widely expanded its test criteria due to falling demand for tests. The province reported zero new cases on Friday, and says it has no backlog at its lab. However, Manitoba Premier Brian Pallister said lifting restrictions will depend on its ability to successfully test widely and prevent any resurgence. “The opening of our economy is vital, and so this is an issue of importance and discussion that we’re undertaking right now,” he told reporters on Thursday.
In B.C., which has the third-most COVID-19 deaths in Canada, the government released updated modelling on Friday that showed optimism they’ve successfully bent the curve of the pandemic. One chart in the presentation included scenarios for gradual reopening later this spring, and suggested they may be able to keep new cases under control if they slightly increase social contacts to 40 to 60 per cent of normal (it’s about 30 per cent currently). But going to 80 per cent could cause a huge new spike, the modelling estimated.
“We need to find a way forward that allows us to socialize,” said B.C. health minister Adrian Dix on Friday. “Whatever actions we take, we know there’s a significant human cost if we get it wrong.”
B.C.’s provincial medical officer Bonnie Henry used a famous Winston Churchill quote to sum up where the province is at. They’re not at the end, she said. “It is perhaps, maybe, the end of the beginning.”
• Email: bplatt@postmedia.com | Twitter: btaplatt
Copyright Postmedia Network Inc., 2020
