Is the house the late Jack Layton built in Quebec made of straw, sticks or bricks? Is the sovereigntist wolf really the spent force that last May’s federal election results suggest?
Both questions have been on political minds since the New Democrats almost wiped the Bloc Quebecois off the map in that vote.
Over the next few months, some preliminary answers may be forthcoming and they could be more definitive than anyone in either party is bargaining for.
All may be falling in place for a 2012 leadership duel between the Bloc Quebecois and the NDP.
While its outcome would have no significant impact on their respective standings in the Commons, it is the kind of battle from which the loser might not recover.
On Sunday, the Bloc Quebecois selected former PQ minister Daniel Paille as Gilles Duceppe’s successor.
He briefly held a seat in Parliament until last May’s orange wave swept him out of his Montreal riding. Until a replacement riding opens up, Paille will lead the Bloc from the Commons public gallery.
By the time a Quebec seat does become vacant though, he might no longer be the only federal leader looking to fill the vacancy.
On Friday, NDP leadership candidate Brian Topp announced that, if selected in March, he would seek a seat in Quebec – a huge gamble.
The NDP scored some big local victories in the province last May but that does not make any of its seats safe. There is not even a guarantee that Outremont – the only Quebec riding with a short history of repeat NDP victories – would remain in the party fold if MP Thomas Mulcair was to bow out.
To put it mildly, Topp’s Quebec profile is a work in progress. In a byelection held in 2012, there would be within the sovereignty movement plenty of potential prominent candidates liable to give him the fight of his short life in politics.
As of the weekend their ranks include the new Bloc leader.
A frontal Paille/Topp collision might yet not happen. Topp could lose the leadership vote and decide that his talents are better suited for the party’s backrooms.
If he wins, the NDP and the Bloc might come to an agreement to give each other’s leaders a byelection pass. But how each leader would explain such an arrangement to his supporters is hard to fathom.
Paille is in no hurry to re-enter the Commons. Since it has lost its official party status, the Bloc has only a fraction of its former presence on the Hill.
For a leader who must rebuild a party from the bottom up, expanding a lot of energy on a stage that offers precious little visibility will not be a priority. While he would certainly quarrel with that depiction, Paille is really more of a caretaker leader than a master of his party’s destiny – at least for now.
A Quebec election is expected to take place next year and the future of the Bloc will largely ride on the performance of the Parti Quebecois in the provincial vote.
If the PQ does as poorly as the polls currently suggest, Paille could end up winding down the Bloc’s affairs once its per-vote subsidies run out in a couple of years.
The NDP on the other hand needs its leader to be in the Commons sooner rather than later – not only to safeguard its Quebec holdings but also to keep the Liberals at bay across the country.
If Topp wins the leadership, his first order of business will be to win a Quebec seat. Paille’s first task will be to do all that he can – personally or by proxy – to make that impossible.
